A Google information security engineer has been charged with fraud after allegedly using confidential internal search data to win over $1.2 million on the prediction market platform Polymarket.
The case marks the latest high-profile crackdown on insider trading in the rapidly expanding prediction market space.
What Happened
Michele Spagnuolo, 36, a Google information security engineer, was arrested Wednesday in New York. According to a federal criminal complaint unsealed by the Southern District of New York, Spagnuolo accessed confidential Google search trend data — available to him through internal tools — and used it to place highly accurate bets on Polymarket under the username AlphaRaccoon.
“Unlike the counterparties to his trades, Spagnuolo knew the outcome of these wagers before the trading public did because he had accessed Google’s confidential, commercially valuable internal data.”
— Federal Criminal Complaint
His most notable bet? D4vd would be the most-searched person on Google in 2025. Polymarket had assigned the singer a near-zero probability — but Spagnuolo knew the internal data.
After Google’s “Year in Search 2025” results went public on December 4, 2025, his account cashed out with $1.2 million in profits.
The Charges
| Charge | Max Penalty |
|---|---|
| Commodities Fraud | Up to 25 years |
| Wire Fraud | Up to 20 years |
| Money Laundering | Up to 20 years |
He was released on a $2.25 million bond (secured by $1M cash) and has not yet entered a plea.
How He Tried to Hide It
After winning big, prosecutors say Spagnuolo actively worked to “obscure the source and ownership of his unlawful proceeds” — moving money through accounts and attempting to cover his tracks.
The scheme was initially flagged when his wins caught the attention of Forbes and social media users who noticed the AlphaRaccoon account’s uncanny accuracy.
What Google Said
“We’re working with law enforcement on their investigation. The employee accessed our marketing material using a tool available to all employees, but using such confidential information to place bets is a serious breach of our policies. We’ve placed the employee on leave and will take the appropriate action.”
— Google Spokesperson
This isn’t the first Polymarket scandal this year — Army soldier Gannon Van Dyke was also charged last month for allegedly betting $400,000 on Maduro’s capture using classified military knowledge.
FAQ
Is Polymarket legal in the US?
Polymarket operates in a regulatory gray area. The CFTC claims exclusive authority over prediction markets, while some states have moved to regulate platforms directly. Several states have introduced legislation targeting insider trading on these platforms.
Could this affect Google’s reputation?
While this is an individual employee’s alleged misconduct, it raises broader questions about how tech companies monitor internal data access. Google claims the employee’s tool access was standard-issue, which could prompt tighter controls across the industry.
What is Polymarket?
Polymarket is a blockchain-based prediction market platform where users bet on outcomes ranging from politics and sports to cultural events and corporate news. Its transparency (all trades are on-chain) actually helped investigators spot the suspicious activity.
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